Abstract

The worldwide development and market penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) and hybrid cars has lagged far behind initial expectations and prognoses. However, more recent discussions about petrol and diesel car emissions seem to accelerate the market penetration of battery-based mobility and other alternative options. Many big car manufacturers have announced that they will offer a broad EV fleet by between 2020 and 2024 at the latest, and some even plan to abandon the production of petrol- and diesel-powered cars completely. This might result in a sharp increase in EV market shares and, consequently, in a significant amount of resources needed to produce traction batteries. At present, EVs are produced mainly using different types of Li-ion batteries (LIBs) and only to a lesser extent other battery systems like NiMH. Also in a midterm perspective, LIBs will probably continue to be the preferred energy storage technology for EVs due to their excellent technical performance. This raises the question of whether we will have enough reserves or resources of key metals such as Li, Co, Ni, Cu, Al, Mn or P required for Li-ion traction batteries. In answering this question, a dynamic material flow analysis (dMFA) was conducted to quantify the global demand for these key metals driven by the increasing number of battery vehicles. The calculations also take into account potential recycling of metals from batteries after the use phase, which significantly reduces the pressure on reserves and resources.

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