The Iranian population is graying: are we ready?

Abstract

Iran has gone through sharp demographic changes in the past three decades. Presently, in Iran, there is a lack of health promotional activities targeting the elderly which can lead to a decrease in their quality of life and an increase in their disability rates. Those most vulnerable amongst the elderly are females, who have low education and low socioeconomic status. For them and others, few social services, accessible housing options and long-term care facilities exist. Data was gathered using population projections over an 80-year period (1975 - 2055), facilitated by spectrum software prepared by the USAID/Health Policy Initiative with data source derived from projections of the United Nations, World Population Prospects. Projections derived were on the expected population, the median age of the population, population pyramids, total fertility rates, life expectancy, and dependency ratio. Projections showed that by the middle of this century approximately one fifth of the population will be over 60, with the median age of the population almost doubling from what it is today and the dependency ratio increasing steadily. Currently, the resources are not sufficient to address the special needs of an elderly population and are at risk for becoming even more strained over the 80 year span. Iran must begin to prepare itself for the impact that a massive ageing population will have in the ensuing years. Recommendations suggest developing policies supportive of accessible and affordable housing and care facilities, establishing community health programs that aid the elderly in continuing to live at home, and strengthening the availability of pension plans.