The investment risk evaluation for onshore and offshore wind power based on system dynamics method

Abstract

Utilizing wind energy can contribute to achieving China's “double carbon” goal. In this study, we propose a research framework that establishes a multi-level system dynamics method aimed at analyzing the investment risk of wind power projects. Through an exploration of the interrelationships between key factors such as market risk, technical risk, and policy risk, we simulate the trend of investment risk for onshore and offshore wind power over a 15-year period, providing valuable insights. Our findings reveal that (1) The investment risk of onshore and offshore wind power exhibits a consistent variation, with policy risk and technical risk displaying a downward trend over time and market risk exhibiting an overall downward trend with fluctuations. (2) In the early stage of simulation, the investment risk of onshore wind power is lower than offshore wind power; however, after ten years, the investment risk of offshore wind power decreases. The study highlights that policy risk is the primary investment risk factor for wind power in the early stage, but as technology improves and policy evolves, market risk becomes the main investment risk. These findings can aid in simulating and evaluating the impact of relevant policies and provide critical guidance for wind power development.