The investment decision of a Multinational Firm under uncertain quantity restrictions

Abstract

In this paper we analyze the allocative investment decisions of a Multinational Firm (MNF) when it faces uncertain quantity restrictions such as a voluntary export restraint or a quota imposed by the host government. The model with uncertain quantity restrictions is analyzed further by introducing additional uncertainties such as a foreign tax rate, transfer prices, foreign exchange rates and foreign demand. The MNF invests more in the host country due to uncertain quantity restrictions. The risk averse MNF invests more in the host country despite its uncertain tax rate if the transfer price is less than the expected marginal revenue loss due to the uncertain quantity restriction. The uncertain transfer price leads the MNF to invest more in the foreign country if the tax rates are dissimilar between the two countries. Foreign demand uncertainty and foreign exchange rates uncertainty have the same effects on capital allocation between the host country and home country. In particular, we derive the condition under which the direction of investment is unambiguous.