The intraseasonal surface air temperature reversal and its predictability analysis in 2021/2022 winter over China

Abstract

AbstractIn 2021/2022 winter, an intraseasonal surface air temperature (SAT) reversal occurred in China, shifting from regional warm to cold phase in late January 2022. The intraseasonal variations of winter SAT in China are tightly connected with 500 hPa potential height. In particular, the Arctic Oscillation (AO) positive phase is diagnosed to be contributing to the SAT reversal. Under its influence, the intraseasonal build‐up and collapse of blockings over Urals Mountain led to the cold surges in February 2022. Seasonal prediction systems (SPSs) such as NCEP_CFSv2, EC_SYSTEM5 and BCC_CSM1.1 are assessed to have poor predictability in this SAT reversal and similar historical events, owing to not only the poor skills in winter SAT predictions but also the integral inertia in SPSs. Prediction skill only increases as the forecasting time approaches, owing to initial values. Besides, the SPSs can simulate the physical process of the influence on SAT from circulation. The poor predictability is attributed to the poor prediction skills in mid–high latitude circulation pattern and potential height over China.