The Intracerebral Hemorrhage Score Overestimates Mortality in Young Adults

Abstract

ObjectiveTo determine whether the intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) score is accurate in predicting 30-day mortality in young adults, we calculated the ICH score for 156 young adults (aged 18-45) with primary spontaneous ICH and compared predicted to observed 30-day mortality rates. MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed all patients aged 18-45 consecutively presenting to the University of Iowa from 2009 to 2019 with ICH. We calculated the ICH score and recorded its individual subcomponents for each patient. Poisson regression was used to test the association of ICH score components with 30-day mortality. ResultsWe identified 156 patients who met the inclusion criteria; mean± standard deviation (SD) age was 35±8 years. The 30-day mortality rate was 15% (n=24). The ICH score was predictive of 30-day mortality for each unit increase (p= 0.04 for trend), but the observed mortality rates for each ICH score varied considerably from the original ICH score predictions. Most notably, the 30-day mortality rates for ICH scores of 1, 2, and 3 are predicted to be 13%, 26%, and 72% respectively, but were observed in our population to be 0%, 3%, and 41%. An ICH volume of >30cc [relative risk (RR) 28, 95% confidence intervals (CI) 3-315, p=0.01] and a GCS score of <5 (RR 13, 95% CI 0.1-1176, p=0.01) were independently associated with 30-day mortality. ConclusionsThe ICH score tends to overestimate mortality in young adults. ICH volume and GCS score are the most relevant items in predicting mortality at 30 days in young adults.