The intersection of aggregate-level lead exposure and crime

Abstract

ContextChildhood lead exposure has been associated with criminal behavior later in life. The current study aimed to analyze the association between elevated blood lead levels (n=59,645) and crime occurrence (n=90,433) across census tracts within St. Louis, Missouri. DesignLongitudinal ecological study. SettingSaint Louis, Missouri. Exposure measureBlood lead levels. Main outcome measureViolent, Non-violent, and total crime at the census tract level. ResultsSpatial statistical models were used to account for the spatial autocorrelation of the data. Greater lead exposure at the census-tract level was associated with increased violent, non-violent, and total crime. In addition, we examined whether non-additive effects existed in the data by testing for an interaction between lead exposure and concentrated disadvantage. Some evidence of a negative interaction emerged, however, it failed to reach traditional levels of statistical significance (supplementary models, however, revealed a similar negative interaction that was significant). ConclusionsMore precise measurements of lead exposure in the aggregate, produced additional evidence that lead is a potent predictor of criminal outcomes.