Abstract

Despite the ubiquity of uncertainty, scientific attention has focused primarily on probabilistic approaches, which predominantly rely on the assumption that uncertainty can be measured and expressed numerically. At the same time, the increasing amount of research from a range of areas including psychology, economics, and sociology testify that in the real world, people’s understanding of risky and uncertain situations cannot be satisfactorily explained in probabilistic and decision-theoretical terms. In this article, we offer a theoretical overview of an alternative approach to uncertainty developed in the framework of the ecological rationality research program. We first trace the origins of the ecological approach to uncertainty in Simon’s bounded rationality and Brunswik’s lens model framework and then proceed by outlining a theoretical view of uncertainty that ensues from the ecological rationality approach. We argue that the ecological concept of uncertainty relies on a systemic view of uncertainty that features it as a property of the organism–environment system. We also show how simple heuristics can deal with unmeasurable uncertainty and in what cases ignoring probabilities emerges as a proper response to uncertainty.

Highlights

  • 1 Introduction: the challenge of uncertainty in decision‐making research “All things that are still to come lie in uncertainty; live straightaway” (Seneca 49/1990, p. 313)

  • We have demonstrated that simple heuristic rules offer fast and effective ways to grapple with uncertainty that can, under specific conditions, surpass the performance of more sophisticated methods, such as those based on probability and statistical decision theory

  • Unmeasurable uncertainty, which exceeds standard normative approaches to rationality provided by the statistical decision theory, presents a number of challenges for research on decision making

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Summary

Uncertainty in Simon’s bounded rationality

In developing his approach to bounded rationality, Simon aimed first and foremost to formulate a psychologically realistic theory of rational choice capable of explaining how people make decisions and how they can achieve their goals under internal and external constraints. In contrast to the decision-theoretical identification of uncertainty with the situations of known outcomes and unknown probabilities, Simon’s notion of uncertainty includes the unknown outcome space, the limited knowledge of alternatives, and the environmental complexity In view of this irreducible uncertainty inherent to the real world, the very meaning of rationality had to be redefined. Whereas classical and modern decision-theoretical views of rational inference presuppose adherence to the rules of logic and probability theory, Simon stressed that the essence of rational behavior consists in how an organism can adapt to achieve its goals under the constraints of its environment and its own cognitive limitations.

Uncertainty in Brunswik’s lens model framework
Uncertainty as a property of the organism–environment system
Simple heuristics in large worlds
Ignoring probabilities when uncertainty looms
Types of uncertainty and strategy selection
Conclusion

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