The interplay of the carbon market, the tradable green certificate market, and electricity market in South Korea: Dynamic transmission and spillover effects

Abstract

The carbon emission trading scheme (ETS) and tradable green certificate (TGC) system have been widely used to encourage renewable technology and mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Previous studies have discussed the interaction between these market-based instruments and the electricity market from a theoretical perspective. This research contributes to the literature by empirically examining the interplay of carbon market, the TGC market, and electricity market using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the price transmission between different markets. A VAR-BEKK-GARCH model, based on discrete wavelet decomposition, was used to reveal the spillover effect between the three markets over multiple time scales. Based on evidence from the partially deregulated electricity market in South Korea, we do not find a significant short-term interaction between carbon market and the TGC market through the price transmission. However, the analysis over multiple time scales demonstrates that the return spillover between the carbon market and the TGC market is positive and bidirectional in the medium-term and long-term. In addition, the policy integration may create higher price risks to the carbon market and the TGC market, resulting from long-term risk spillovers. We explain these contrasting findings and discuss implications for the future deployment of these policies.