The interplay of China and Gulf countries in third-party market dynamics: an asymmetric competition perspective on the Belt and Road Initiative

Abstract

China’s recent shift in the Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) focusses on engaging middle powers in the Global South for joint development of commercially viable projects in third countries. Among these are the oil-rich Gulf heavyweights seen as critical partners and supporters of the BRI. Yet, instances of competition or conflict of interests with Beijing are not uncommon. Applying the asymmetric competition theory, this study compares Sino-Emirati interactions in maritime infrastructure in the Horn of Africa with Sino-Saudi cooperation in China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. We find that Gulf heavyweights can leverage their asymmetric advantages to affect the interaction patterns with greater powers. By distributing resources disproportionally, the medium Southern powers can strive to partially establish structural power, enabling them to get dis-embedded from the single cooperation framework dominated by a great power. In the case of seemingly harmonious third-party collaboration, a dynamic analytical perspective reveals that early embedding these actors might lay the groundwork for the creation of asymmetric advantages which can be leveraged later.