Abstract

We report on some simple experiments on the nature of chaos in our planetary system. We make the following interesting observations. First, we look at the system of Sun + four Jovian planets as an isolated five-body system interacting only via Newtonian gravity. We find that if we measure the Lyapunov time of this system across thousands of initial conditions all within observational uncertainty, then the value of the Lyapunov time seems relatively smooth across some regions of initial condition space, while in other regions it fluctuates wildly on scales as small as we can reliably measure using numerical methods. This probably indicates a fractal structure of Lyapunov exponents measured across initial condition space. Then, we add the four inner terrestrial planets and several post-Newtonian corrections such as general relativity into the model. In this more realistic Sun + eight-planet system, we find that the above structure of chaos for the outer planets becomes uniformly chaotic for almost all planets and almost all initial conditions, with a Lyapunov time-scale of about 5–20 Myr. This seems to indicate that the addition of the inner planets adds more chaos to the system. Finally, we show that if we instead remove the outer planets and look at the isolated five-body system of the Sun + four terrestrial planets, then the terrestrial planets alone show no evidence of chaos at all, over a large range of initial conditions inside the observational error volume. We thus conclude that the uniformity of chaos in the outer planets comes not from the inner planets themselves, but from the interplay between the outer and inner ones. Interestingly, however, there exist rare and isolated initial conditions for which one individual outer planetary orbit may appear integrable over a 200-Myr time-scale, while all the other planets simultaneously appear chaotic.

Highlights

  • Is the Solar system stable? Properly speaking, the answer is still unknown, and yet this question has led to very deep results which probably are more important than the answer to the original question

  • Astronomers have been interested in the phenomena of chaos in the Solar system for centuries, but reliable answers to the question of its stability have only been possible in the late 20th century due to the advent of numerical simulations fast enough accurately to integrate the Solar system for hundreds of millions of years

  • He showed that the inner SS (Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars) is chaotic with a Lyapunov time of about 5 Myr, but he saw no chaos in the orbits of the outer planets

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Summary

INTRODUCTION

Is the Solar system stable? Properly speaking, the answer is still unknown, and yet this question has led to very deep results which probably are more important than the answer to the original question. Laskar (1989) performed a 200-Myr integration of the entire SS except Pluto using an extended version of the perturbation methods developed by Lagrange and Laplace He showed that the inner SS (Mercury, Venus, Earth and Mars) is chaotic with a Lyapunov time of about 5 Myr, but he saw no chaos in the orbits of the outer planets. The chaos in the inner SS was soon verified by full numerical integration of all the planets, but here chaos was observed in the outer planets (Sussman & Wisdom 1992) This led to uncertainty about the existence of chaos in the outer SS that was resolved by demonstrating that both chaotic and apparently regular orbits exist within observational uncertainty (Hayes 2007, 2008). If we measure the Lyapunov time for each point in a given cross-section of initial condition space (all within observational error), what structures do we observe? And secondly, how does this structure change if we re-introduce the inner planets into the system, and include other effects such as general relativity (GR), the J2 moment of the Sun and a J2 moment of the Earth–Moon system designed to mimic the effect of our Moon on the inner SS?

STRUCTURE OF CHAOS IN THE ISOLATED FIVE-BODY SYSTEM OF OUTER PLANETS
ADDING THE TERRESTRIAL PLANETS AND POST-NEWTONIAN CORRECTIONS
TH EINTERPL AY O F C H AO S BE TWEENTHE INNER AND OUTER PLANETS
THE ISOLATED TERRESTRIAL PLANETS ADMIT NO CHAOS
Integration scheme
Findings
Estimating the Lyapunov exponent
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