Abstract
In the Internet Era of information overload, how does the individual filter and process available knowledge? In addressing this question, this paper examines the behavioral changes in the online interest in terms related to Measles and the Anti-Vaccine Movement from 2004 to 2017, in order to identify any relationships between the decrease in immunization percentages, the Anti-Vaccine Movement, and the increased reported Measles cases. The results show that statistically significant positive correlations exist between monthly Measles cases and Google queries in the respective translated terms in most EU28 countries from January 2011 to August 2017. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation (p < 0.01) exists between the online interest in the term ‘Anti Vaccine’ and the Worldwide immunization percentages from 2004 to 2016. The latter could be supportive of previous work suggesting that conspiracist ideation is related to the rejection of scientific propositions. As Measles require the highest immunization percentage out of the vaccine preventable diseases, the 2017 EU outbreak could be the first of several other diseases’ outbreaks or epidemics in the near future should the immunization percentages continue to decrease. Big Data Analytics in general and the analysis of Google queries in specific have been shown to be valuable in addressing health related topics up to this point. Therefore, analyzing the variations and patterns of available online information could assist health officials with the assessment of reported cases, as well as taking the required preventive actions.
Highlights
It was in 1998 when Wakefield et al [1] published a paper in the Scientific Journal ‘The Lancet’, suggesting that they identified “a chronic enterocolitis in children that may be related to neuropsychiatric dysfunction
The results of this study suggest that there is a relation between the online interest in the Anti-Vaccine Movement and the decrease in vaccination percentages, and that the online queries for the term ‘Measles’ are potively correlated with Measles reported cases in most EU28 countries
In the era of online information overload, can the use of the Internet affect public health? To address this question, this study aimed at tracking the 2017 EU Measles outbreak, by analyzing the online behavioral variations in terms related to Measles and the Anti-Vaccine Movement
Summary
It was in 1998 when Wakefield et al [1] published a paper in the Scientific Journal ‘The Lancet’, suggesting that they identified “a chronic enterocolitis in children that may be related to neuropsychiatric dysfunction. Onset of symptoms was after measles, mumps, and rubella immunisation”. This study was conducted on a sample of 12 children, with the overall interpretation of the results being—in simple words—that autism is associated with the Measles-Mumps-Rubella (MMR) vaccine [2]. The claims of this study have since been proven to be false, with over 20 epidemiologic studies showing that no causality or relationship exists between vaccination and autism [3]. Said studies were methodologically solid, i.e., conducted in several countries and by different researchers, while employing epidemiologic and statistical methods for large population sizes. A meta-analysis of more than 40 studies showed that no links between vaccination and autism exist [4]
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