The international spillover effects of US trade policy uncertainty

Abstract

This paper examines the international spillover effects on the exports from 30 of the United States’ major trading partners of the removal of US trade policy uncertainty, when China joined the WTO in 2001, by using product-level data at the HS-6 level, from 1991 to 2007. The empirical analysis discovers that removing US trade policy uncertainty has sizable positive spillover effects on Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Belgium, France, Germany, The Netherlands, Norway, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, Hong Kong, India, and New Zealand. The countries that experience negative spillover effects are Austria, Japan, and Taiwan.