The international derivatives market: Growth leaders and trends in the current geopolitical environment

Abstract

Aim. To consider the impact of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and special military ope­ration on the structure of the international derivatives market. Tasks. To characterize the regional structure of the international derivatives market; to analyze the specifics of trade by region, country, exchange and underlying assets; to identify key trends in the international derivatives market and the factors forming them during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and special military operation. Methods. General scientific methods of research (analysis and synthesis, induction, classifica­tion, etc.), as well as computational and analytical methods were used. Results. Two key trends were identified in the study of changes in international derivatives trading activity. First, the Asia-Pacific region, led by India and China, has taken the lead in the international derivatives trade structure in terms of trade volume. The U.S. region, led by the United States and Brazil, has lagged far behind the Asia-Pacific region in terms of trade activ­ity since the launch of the special military operation, which may entail capital outflows from America to East and South Asia. Second, the West Asian region, which includes a number of countries in the Near and Middle East, led by Turkey and Iran, is a new player in the deriva­tives market, which has entered into competition with the European region. During the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic, the West Asian region actively increased derivatives trading volumes. The most popular underlying assets of derivatives were stocks, whose trading volume during the pandemic approached the trading volume of the European region as a whole, which includes the European Union countries, Great Britain and Russia. After the start of the special military operation, the drop in volumes in the European region put the West Asian region in third place in the international structure of derivatives trading activity, indicating the growing competi­tion between West Asia and Europe. Conclusions. The transformation of the international market based on the outflow of trade activity to South, East and West Asia during the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic and special military operation forms a qualitatively new interaction of participants in the international derivatives market. India, China, Turkey and Iran are new key players in the Asian region. Their interaction creates prerequisites for the creation of a contour of new economic mutually advan­tageous interaction in the world economic system, in which the competition is between the regions of South Asia, East Asia and America, as well as between West Asia and the European region. To form a clearer contour of the participants of the new economic interaction, further research on the centers of capitalization in the international derivatives market and the basis for their formation, as well as infrastructure research aimed at studying the transatlantic and continental system of interconnection of exchanges is needed.