The internal dynamics of fast-growing wind finance markets

Abstract

Rapidly mobilising finance from a wide variety of sources is crucial for scaling up wind deployment and enabling the clean energy transition. To do so will require an understanding how investors co-invest in wind project finance markets and how internal market dynamics align with rapid growth in deployment. Our analysis of the largest, mature wind markets globally shows that internal market dynamics matter for the pace of growth. We observe a common pathway to fast growth whereby a small set of experienced debt providers, predominantly commercial banks, support a major fraction of all lending activity. These critical investors ascend to prominent positions in the market through a positive feedback process whereby more experienced lenders are more likely to attract new equity partners and this ‘financial learning’ spurs virtuous cycles of investment. Our results suggest strategic action to boost project finance investments entails leveraging positive feedback dynamics and supporting systemically important lenders.