The interest rate exposure of euro area households

Abstract

We estimate the “unhedged interest rate exposure” (URE) of euro area households. The URE, defined by Auclert (2019), is a welfare metric that captures the extent to which households are exposed to changes in real interest rates, and allows an assessment of the redistributive effects associated with monetary policy decisions.We examine the distribution of UREs along the net wealth, income, age and housing status distributions for the euro area as a whole and for individual countries, and document substantial heterogeneity across these dimensions. Households at the lower end of the net wealth distribution, younger households and mortgagors have negative interest rate exposure and would lose out from an increase in interest rates, all else being equal. Wealthy households, higher income and older households, as well as outright homeowners would stand to benefit.The heterogeneity of exposures across euro area countries is largely attributable to the differences in the prevalence of adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs). Averaging across households in euro area countries, households in Austria, Germany, Italy and Malta stand to benefit from an increase in the interest rate, whereas households in Cyprus, Ireland, the Netherlands, Portugal and Spain would lose out.