The interannual and decadal sea level variabilities over the Indo-Pacific Oceans in the Reanalysis and CMIP6 Historical Simulations and Projections

Abstract

In climatological research, understanding past and accurately simulating future sea level variability is paramount due to the considerable risk that sea level changes pose to low-lying regions, coupled with their significant influence on the occurrence and severity of extreme meteorological events  . This research insights are vital in evaluating the potential impact on renewable energy sources, particularly offshore wind, wave, and tidal energy, where changes in sea level can significantly alter the efficiency and viability of these energy converters. This study comprehensively analyses sea level variability on interannual and decadal scales in the Indo-Pacific region, integrating data from the Ocean Reanalysis System 5 (ORAS5), CMIP6 historical simulations spanning from 1850-2014, and future projections under the CMIP6 future intermediate emission scenario (rcp245/ssp245) for the period 2015 to 2100. Our investigation spans key areas such as the Northwest Central Pacific Ocean (NWCPO), the Eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean (EEPO), and the Thermocline Ridge of the Indian Ocean (TRIO), among others.We report findings on interannual and decadal Sea Level Anomaly (SLA) variability, especially highlighting the TRIO region and various Pacific Ocean zones such as the SWPO, NWCPO, EEPO, and NWNPO. Our study identifies a substantial increase in interannual variability in the NWNPO. We also observe consistent sea-level variability patterns across these regions, extending into future projections under moderate emission scenarios.We find that the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation are key drivers of these variabilities. Our study reveals a strong connection between sea levels in the Equatorial Pacific and the Niño 3.4 index, suggesting its potential as a sea level-based indicator for El Niño and La Niña events.Our research highlights the critical role of atmospheric forcing in driving sea level variability. We link high sea-level variability regions to significant wind stress curl anomalies, with distinct differences between hemispheres. We explore the mechanics of equatorial variability, emphasizing the role of equatorial Kelvin waves and local and remote Rossby waves in different oceanic regions.Our study concludes that most CMIP6 models, despite large model uncertainty, predict an increase in sea level variability for the upcoming century, particularly in the Pacific Ocean, emphasizing the need for heightened attention to this dynamic region in the context of global climate change .