Abstract
The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; however, neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection. We show how immunity, depending on its durability, may work with current social practices to limit the spread of the virus. We further show that a vaccine that is 50% effective and taken by 50% of the population will prevent further loss of life, providing that social distancing is still practiced and that immunity does not wane quickly.IMPORTANCE The ability of our society to function effectively moving forward will depend on how the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus is contained. Immunity to the virus will be critical to this equation.
Highlights
The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection
For a novel pathogen introduced into a fully susceptible population, SIR and related models predict an intensive wave of infections followed by decline to zero, as R individuals accumulate and S individuals are depleted, limiting the ability of the infection to spread to new hosts (“herd immunity”) (Fig. 1A)
As previously discussed, evidence from other coronaviruses suggests that antibodies wane over time, and humans may be susceptible to reinfection
Summary
The existence and nature of immunity to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are currently unknown; neutralizing antibodies are thought to play the major role and data from studying other coronaviruses suggest that partial clinical immunity lasting up to 1 year will occur postinfection. In the absence of a vaccine, restricting social interaction is the only way to slow the spread; many countries where this has been effective are experiencing a resurgence of infections with further restrictions being imposed Such restrictions are accompanied by worsening mental and physical health [3, 4], delays in “nonessential” medical services [5, 6], increased domestic violence [7], and significant negative effects on education and research [8], the economy and travel both within and between countries. Little is known about protective immunity, and currently, we can only infer the immunological consequences of exposure to SARS-CoV-2 by studying in vitro responses, from early convalescent plasma trials, from animal studies, and by extrapolating from studies of other coronaviruses
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