The interaction of material and ideational factors in the East China Sea dispute: impact on future dispute management

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This article seeks to explain the current phase of the East China Sea dispute between China and Japan. It argues that previous analyses privilege one aspect of the dispute over the other. Some stress the nationalist dimension of the dispute while others argue the primary motivations relate to the material wealth of the seabed combined with increased energy needs in China and Japan. By analysing the interaction between the nationalist (ideational) and resource (material) dimensions, it becomes clear why it has become increasingly difficult for policy elites in either state to seek compromise. This is because nationalist constituencies in China and Japan have extended their nationalist/ideational sentiment from the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands to the entire East China Sea. Simultaneously, Beijing and Tokyo's interest in the material exploitation and security of the East China Sea has risen. This convergence between nationalist and elite interest became clear in April 2005 and significantly raised bilateral tensions over the East China Sea until October 2005. These findings indicate that it will remain difficult for elites to manage the dispute in the future, particularly in light of the red line drawn by China at the end of the 2005 crisis. Most importantly, compromise on the material aspects of the dispute has become beholden to nationalist prerogatives.