The Interaction between China's Goods Trade Imports and Export Development --Empirical Analysis Based on VAR Model with Co-integration Test

Abstract

International trade theory believes that goods import and export have different relationships in different countries, this paper uses the year of 1978 to 2020’s Chinese goods import and export data to establish a VAR model and co-integration test of the econometric model for empirical analysis, this paper found that: (1) imports and exports of goods trade show a positive relationship, there is a unique co-integration relationship; (2) From the VAR model can be analyzed obtained that the import of goods trade is the Granger cause of export, that is, the export of goods can promote the development of goods import. Therefore, it is believed that there is a development interaction between the import and export of goods in China, and China should improve the relationship between import and export by driving the export with import, so as to develop our foreign trade stably.