The intensity of the climatic signal in the dynamics of the increment of Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) of the Khrenovskii forest (Voronezh region, Russia)

Abstract

Our research was carried out in the center of the Voronezh Region, Russia, in the pine forest “Khrenovskoy forest”, located in the forest steppe zone of the Russian Plain. The samples for dendrochronological analysis were collected from 30 trees (1 core per tree). The climatic characteristics are taken from the data of the weather stations “Khrenovskoy forest”, for the period 1936-1996 and Voronezh for the period 1862-2015. In accordance with the goal of the research, we identified high correlation coefficients (up to 0.42) and dispersion (up to 0.66) between the radial increment of Scots pine and the climatic limiting growth factors (sum of atmospheric precipitation, hydrothermal coefficient Selyaninova). We revealed a significant positive effect of the sums of atmospheric precipitation in May-August on pine growth (correlation coefficient up to 0.39) and a weak effect of air temperatures. The prevailing cyclic components of the time series studied are established: a high-frequency cycle (about 3 years) and a Brikner cycle (about 33 years). We have constructed mathematical models by the method of singular-spectral analysis (SSA). In the mathematical models constructed by us, due to the use of combined time series of climatic factors (the sum of precipitation, hydrothermal coefficient and indices of the radial increment of pine stands, for the first time a very high coefficient of similarity between actual and theoretical series was achieved: 78…90%.