The instrumental seismicity of the Jordan Dead Sea transform

Abstract

The instrumental seismicity that occurred in the Jordan Dead Sea transform region during the period 1900–2014 is compiled from all available sources. Some 492 phosphate mining explosions (M ≤ 3.9) are recognized and filtered from the data. Excluding these, it is found that 4448 earthquakes have occurred with magnitudes M ≥ 3.0. Only 572, 18 and 2 of these had magnitudes M ≥ 4, 5, and 6 in respective order. Average recurrence periods for the 5 and 6 magnitudes are 6.3 and 57 years. Much of these have occurred in sequences and swarms. The epicentral distribution of the compiled instrumental seismicity data shows very good correlation with the general tectonics of the study region. All tectonic elements are active in the present with a noticeable hazard. The regional strike-slip faults of the transform proper remain the major sources of this hazard. They account for not less than 99% of the seismic energy released from all instrumental data. The calculated a-parameter of the whole transform is 6.6. It varies for all its strike-slip faults mostly in the range 6.0–6.6. The b-value of the whole transform and some of its major segments is 1.0. Others show b-variations in the range of 1.1–1.3. Such a- and b-values imply recurrence periods of 38 years and 395 years for the 6 and 7 magnitude earthquakes. Such values, their variations and the seismic moment calculations clearly indicate an appreciable level of seismic hazard associated with all segments. This hazard appears to be highest for Al Ghab segment, followed by Beqa’a and Wadi Araba segments, respectively. The other three segments appear to be of lower hazard. The seismicity of this region is very shallow. More than 99% of the seismic energy has been released from the brittle granitic upper crust whose thickness is about 21 km and its Poisson’s ratio is 0.25. More than 93.6% of the energy was released from its upper 10 km. Very little energy is released from the underlying ductile basaltic crust whose Poisson’s ratio is 0.29. The calculated seismic slip rate along the Whole Jordan Dead Sea transform is 0.54 cm/year if the fault depth is assumed 10 km. It increases to 0.77 and 1.07 cm/year if the fault depth is reduced to 7 and 5 km, respectively. These slip rates are comparable with the long-term geologically deduced rate of 1 cm/year.