Abstract
Abstract This study analyzes the temporal variability of seasonal and annual rainfall in the Tafna watershed (Northwest Algeria), using a homogeneous monthly rainfall database from 17 stations of 46 years of observation (1970-2015). Possible trends in seasonal and annual variations in rainfall were detected using the innovative trend analysis (ITA), which identifies trends in the low, medium and high values of a series. The results obtained indicate that seasonal rainfall showed a decreasing trend in winter and spring, while increasing trend is detected in summer and autumn. Low and high values categories are the most affected by the decrease in winter, while for spring it is the medium and high values, which are affected. In addition, spring showed the greatest decrease in arithmetic average and standard deviation. On the other hand, summer and autumn, present a growing trend affecting the low and high values, while in autumn, these are the medium and high values. Summer recorded the maximum increase in arithmetic average and standard deviation, and may present a flooding risk in future. Annually, a decreasing trend dominate. Most stations are marked by a decrease in their annual arithmetic means and standard deviation.
Highlights
Precipitation, one of the fundamental components of the water cycle, is the main source of water supply
To detect trends in seasonal and annual precipitation, the innovative trend analysis (ITA) method was applied to the 17 rainfall stations in the Tafna watershed during the period (1970-2015)
On the other hand, spring is the season with the greatest decrease in arithmetic average (-44.99%) and standard deviation (-47.48%)
Summary
Precipitation, one of the fundamental components of the water cycle, is the main source of water supply. Their needs will increase in the future due to population growth and the socioeconomic development of communities. The variability of precipitation directly involves the two extremes, droughts and floods. These two meteorological hazards can both threaten water supply, irrigation and industry, and alter country strategies by causing catastrophic damage, both human and material (Wang et al, 2020; Benzater et al, 2019; Kreibich et al, 2017; Ghenim et al, 2016; Labban, 2016; Milly et al, 2008). These changes are caused either directly (internal variability) or indirectly (external variability or climate change, due to anthropogenic activities) (Mohorji et al, 2017; IPCC, 2013; 2007)
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