Abstract
This paper first defines the industrial innovation spillover probability as when industry performs industrial innovation activities or achieves innovative performance, the spillover of innovation performance possibility in other industries is called innovation spillover probability. Secondly, we introduce the quantiles to determine the criteria and build the regression model to prove the relationship between the regression parameters and the probabilities of interaction in different linear circumstances. Then, we analyze the interindustry innovation spillover probability. Thirdly, we choose industrial paper growth rate as an original data and perform an empirical research on the Tang Shan and Handan's industry. Finally, we conclude that (1) Innovation spillover strength and probability have highly relevant with industry characteristics, technical characteristics and the characteristics of innovative activities. (2)The industrial innovation spillover depends on technical industrial features more than on space and distance. (3)The innovation spillover probability under innovation activities is higher than that which there is no innovation activities.
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