The Ingredients of Recent Fertility Decline in Developing Countries

Abstract

The hypothesis that certain demographic social and economic development factors independent of family planning program efforts can influence fertility decline was examined using survey data from 83 less developed countries. Independent variables included economic development (GNP per capita and energy consumption per capita) social development (adult literacy and life expectancy) urbanization and family planning program effort. The crude birthrate (CBR) was used to measure fertility. The 1970 level of social and economic development was correlated with change in fertility between 1960 and 1980. The 1974 measure of national family planning programs was also used in the analysis. A much stronger relationship was found between the CBR and social development and family planning effort than was found for economic development. The association of urbanization with fertility was stronger than that for economic development but weaker than the social or family planning program development indicators. Identical mean CBRs were found in the Asian (34.2) and Latin American (34.3) countries in the study. However in Asia family planning effort was higher and in Latin America levels of social and economic development were higher. Literacy and especially life expectancy showed consistently stronger zero-order correlations with family planning effort than either of the economic development indicators or urbanization. Family planning effort and literacy were always significant predictors of the 1960-80 change in CBR. These results suggest that policies to reduce fertility should concentrate simultaneously on increasing literacy improving health conditions and strengthening family planning program efforts. Moreover the finding that fertility is sensitive to certain measures of development and not to others indicates that separate measures of social and economic development can be isolated.