Abstract
This paper summarizes the approaches to and the implications of bottom–up infrastructure modeling in the framework of the EMF28 model comparison "Europe 2050: The Effects of Technology Choices on EU Climate Policy". It includes models covering all the sectors currently under scrutiny by the European Infrastructure Priorities: Electricity, natural gas, and CO 2. Results suggest that some infrastructure enhancement is required to achieve the decarbonization, and that the network development needs can be attained in a reasonable timeframe. In the electricity sector, additional cross-border interconnection is required, but generation and the development of low-cost renewables is a more challenging task. For natural gas, the falling total consumption could be satisfied by the current infrastructure in place, and even in a high-gas scenario the infrastructure implications remain manageable. Model results on the future role of Carbon Capture, Transport, and Sequestration (CCTS) vary, and suggest that most of the transportation infrastructure might be required in and around the North Sea.
Highlights
Infrastructure questions of how to bring energy from the production site to the consumers are underlying all analytical efforts of drawing the perspectives of our energy systems
For each of the infrastructure sectors covered, we provide an in-depth analysis of the potential infrastructure needs: Electricity, natural gas, and CO2 pipelines
This paper has summarized and compared model results for analyses of the infrastructure implications of different scenarios facing the 2050 decarbonization target for the European energy sector
Summary
Infrastructure questions of how to bring energy from the production site to the consumers are underlying all analytical efforts of drawing the perspectives of our energy systems. When the offshore wind in Germany blows, this does affect its neighbors due to the loop flows in the electricity grid (ENTSO-E, 2012) This anecdotal evidence shows that transmission infrastructure needs to be taken into account when deriving projections of future energy systems such as the Energy Roadmap 2050 (EC, 2011). The electricity models EMPS (by SINTEF Energy Research), LIMES-EUþ (PIK), and ELMOD (TU Berlin, DIW Berlin) concentrate on the default EMF 28 scenarios with CCTS (40%DEF and 80%DEF as well as 80%EFF) to compare their infrastructure results. Given the reliance on PRIMES for the input variable definition, this scenario set was the upper bound for the modeling teams in the infrastructure group
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