The Information Content of Quarterly Dividend Changes

Abstract

This paper shows that dividend changes reveal new information about future earnings levels and are mixed with regard to future earnings variance. Revisions of Value Line earnings forecasts spanning up to five quarters have a positive association with unexpected dividend changes. Consistent with the negative association documented between dividend changes and future earnings variance, these revisions also exhibit greater cross-sectional dispersion following dividend decreases than following dividend increases. The relation between stock returns and earnings forecast errors following dividend announcements shows that dividend announcements convey information to the market about earnings in the next quarter and the quarter one year hence, but are not consistent with dividends revealing new information about the variance of future earnings.