The influential factor of the rice import problem in Indonesia

Abstract

Abstract Indonesia’s rice imports demonstrate variability, peaking in 2023 at 3 million tons. This import volume is the second-highest documented from 1993 to 2023. This study seeks to evaluate the influence of harvest area, rice production, rice consumption, Indonesian GDP, exchange rate, and local rice price on the volume of rice imports. This study employs annual time series data from 1993 to 2023. This study employs the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) methodology. The study indicates that the ARDL model is defined by the variables of harvest area (LP), rice production (PB), rice consumption (KB), Indonesian GDP (GDP), exchange rate (NT), and local rice pricing (HB). All parameters, including variable t, the lag optimum of harvest area, rice production, rice consumption, Indonesian GDP, exchange rate, and local rice price, exert a considerable impact on the rice import variable (I) at a rate of 92%. Partially, I (-3), LP, LP (-1), PB (-1), and PDB (-1) significantly impact rice imports (I). Over the long run, LP, PB, KB, GDP, NT, and HB have no significant impact on the volume of rice imports. In the short term, I (-1), I (-2), LP, PDB (-1), HB, and HB (-1) significantly impact rice imports.