The Influencing Factors of sCER Price Dynamics Under the Clean Development Mechanism: Theory and Econometric Analysis

Abstract

In order to explore the factors and their complex mechanism affecting the price dynamics under the clean development mechanism (CDM), this article employs the secondary Certified Emission Reduction (sCER) carbon price as the study object, and analyzes its influencing factors from aspects of the international carbon-reduction policies, macroeconomic fluctuations, energy and similar carbon products prices. The innovation of this paper lies in: Introducing necessary factor (the developing countries pricing power) and the application of several international representative indicators to underline the “world” nature of CDM; utilizing different econometric models to obtain noteworthy and more robust results. The authors test the theoretical findings with multiple stationary time series from the launch of CDM to present (2008–2016). The results reveal that sCER price fluctuation shows the characteristic of asymmetry and substantial persistence. There is a strong statistically significant relationship between macroeconomic conditions, coal and oil prices, with the price of sCER. The authors discover that the pricing power of developing countries indeed has a clear but small impact on the sCER price changes, whereas the price elasticity of supply under CDM is so weak. The interaction between EU emission allowances (EUAs) and sCER presents a shift from dependency to substitution.