The Influence of Wildfire Climate on Wildfire Incidence: The Case of Portugal

Abstract

Although the influence of climate on the fire regime is unanimously recognized, most publications and studies on this influence are on a global scale. Therefore, this study aims to demonstrate the role of climate in wildfire incidence at the country and regional scale using multivariate statistical analysis and machine learning methods (clustering and classification algorithms). Mainland Portugal was chosen as a case study due to its climate and because it is the European region most affected by wildfires. The results demonstrate the climate signature in the spatial and temporal distribution of the wildfire incidence. The conclusions of the study include (i) the existence of two pyro-regions, with different types of climate (Csb and Csa) composed of NUTS II regions: the northern region composed of the Norte and Centro regions and the southern region composed of Alentejo and Algarve; (ii) the intra-annual variability in the wildfire incidence, characterized by two peaks, one in the spring and the other in the summer, are a consequence of the country’s type of climate; and (iii) how the annual cycle of wildfire incidence varies over the years depends on the weather conditions throughout each year. These results are of fundamental importance for wildfire managers, especially in the context of climate change.