The influence of weather-climatic and social factors on population mortality from circulatory diseases in Russia.

Abstract

To study the links between the standard mortality rate of the population from circulatory system diseases (CSD) with factors: weather-climatic (inter-day jumps in air temperature and atmospheric pressure by seasons and for the year) and social (average annual income per person and the number of doctors of all specialties) in Russia for the period 1995-2015. According to station data and data of reanalysis, seasonal and annual amounts of day-to-day jumps in air temperature were calculated more than the absolute value of 4° and 6°C and the atmospheric pressure more than the absolute value of 8 GPa. The links between climate variables and the mortality rate of the population, taking into account social factors, were investigated using factor analysis, including regression and variance analyses. Annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps of different signs vary greatly on the territory: the maximum amounts are 3-4 times higher than the minimum ones. The geographical distribution of air temperature fluctuations differs from the distribution of atmospheric pressure fluctuations. The sum of temperature jumps in the absolute value of more than 6°C is about twice less than the sum of jumps more than 4°C, but they are characterized by similarity of geographical distribution. The sum of the jumps of temperature (pressure) is reduced during the summer is approximately two times compared to the winter. The maximum jumps are observed mainly in the Northern regions with low population density, but with high per capita income, while the minimum is observed in the South-Western parts of the European part of the country with high population density, as well as middle and low income. Global warming does not significantly affect the reduction of annual amounts of temperature (pressure) jumps. Factor analysis of social and climatic variables in the territory for each year indicates the dominance of the influence of the social factor (per capita income) on the mortality rate from CSD. Factor analysis is integrated in the annual scale climatic and social variables showed a dominant effect on the coefficient of mortality from CSD, the factor of standard of living (per capita income of the population). Then the significance of the impact factors is consistently reduced: negative atmospheric pressure jumps, average seasonal pressure, health care level, positive pressure jumps. The significance of temperature variables is the smallest.