Abstract
Abstract. In this study, vegetation–climate and vegetation–carbon cycle interactions during anthropogenic climate change are assessed by using the Earth System Model of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI ESM) that includes vegetation dynamics and an interactive carbon cycle. We assume anthropogenic CO2 emissions according to the RCP 8.5 scenario in the time period from 1850 to 2120. For the time after 2120, we assume zero emissions to evaluate the response of the stabilising Earth System by 2300. Our results suggest that vegetation dynamics have a considerable influence on the changing global and regional climate. In the simulations, global mean tree cover extends by 2300 due to increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and global warming. Thus, land carbon uptake is higher and atmospheric CO2 concentration is lower by about 40 ppm when considering dynamic vegetation compared to the static pre-industrial vegetation cover. The reduced atmospheric CO2 concentration is equivalent to a lower global mean temperature. Moreover, biogeophysical effects of vegetation cover shifts influence the climate on a regional scale. Expanded tree cover in the northern high latitudes results in a reduced albedo and additional warming. In the Amazon region, declined tree cover causes a regional warming due to reduced evapotranspiration. As a net effect, vegetation dynamics have a slight attenuating effect on global climate change as the global climate cools by 0.22 K due to natural vegetation cover shifts in 2300.
Highlights
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate changes projected for the 21st century (Meehl et al, 2007) are unprecedented in the geological history of the last several million years
Based on simulations made with Global Dynamic Vegetation Model coupled to Atmospheric General Circulation Models, the shifts in vegetation cover due to an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting influence on the climate (Notaro et al, 2007; O’ishi and Abe-Ouchi, 2009; Yurova and Volodin, 2011) and on the carbon cycle (Jones et al, 2010)
As we focus on natural land cover changes, we only include natural vegetation dynamics and neglect anthropogenic land use change
Summary
Atmospheric CO2 concentrations and climate changes projected for the 21st century (Meehl et al, 2007) are unprecedented in the geological history of the last several million years. Based on simulations made with Global Dynamic Vegetation Model coupled to Atmospheric General Circulation Models, the shifts in vegetation cover due to an increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and the resulting influence on the climate (Notaro et al, 2007; O’ishi and Abe-Ouchi, 2009; Yurova and Volodin, 2011) and on the carbon cycle (Jones et al, 2010). We assess the changes in the biosphere due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions and the resulting climate change based on model simulation performed with the MPI ESM, including a dynamic vegetation module and an interactive carbon cycle. This is the first study where the response of the biosphere to anthropogenic climate change and the resulting impact on climate due to the CO2 emissions included in the RCP 8.5 scenario are assessed.
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