The influence of uncertainties of radon exposure on the results of case-control epidemiological study

Abstract

Purpose: Simulation of large-scale epidemiological study to identify the influence of uncertainties of radon exposure assessment on the excess relative risk of lung cancer.Materials and methods: Analysis of sources of uncertainties arising during radon epidemiologic case-control studies. Assessment of the uncertainties due to influence of long-term variations of radon concentration, exposure to radon in other places of human presence, except dwellings, quality of radon concentration measurements etc. Simulation by Monte Carlo technique of radon epidemiologic study, comparable to the pooled European radon case-control study, and assessment of uncertainties, which affect the evaluation of dose-effect dependence.Results: The uncertainties of personal exposure to radon are generally caused by the combined effect of long-term variations of radon concentration and the differences in the levels of radon concentration in homes and other places of human presence. The logarithmic standard deviation of this uncertainty is from 0.70 to 0.90. This value is ∼2 times higher than the uncertainty, applied for correction of the results in the pooled European radon case-control study. It is shown that for σerr < 1.0 regression calibration technique allows to make full correction of the uncertainty. The error in assessment of uncertainties of the exposure to radon concentration in the pooled European radon case-control study has led to an underestimation of excess relative risk of lung cancer incidence at least by 1.5 times.Conclusion: The error in an assessment of uncertainties of radon exposure in the pooled European radon case-control study has led to an underestimation of relative risk of lung cancer incidence at least by 1.5 times.