The influence of traffic-infrastructure factors on pedestrian accidents at the macro-level: The geographically weighted regression approach

Abstract

Introduction: Walking is an active way of moving the population, but in recent years there have been more pedestrian casualties in traffic, especially in developing countries such as Serbia. Macro-level road safety studies enable the identification of influential factors that play an important role in creating pedestrian safety policies. Method: This study analyzes the impact of traffic and infrastructure characteristics on pedestrian accidents at the level of traffic analysis zones. The study applied a geographically weighted regression approach to identify and localize all factors that contribute to the occurrence of pedestrian accidents. Taking into account the spatial correlations between the zones and the frequency distribution of accidents, the geographically Poisson weighted model showed the best predictive performance. Results: This model showed 10 statistically significant factors influencing pedestrian accidents. In addition to exposure measures, a positive relationship with pedestrian accidents was identified in the length of state roads (class I), the length of unclassified streets, as well as the number of bus stops, parking spaces, and object units. However, a negative relationship was recorded with the total length of the street network and the total length of state roads passing through the analyzed area. Conclusion: These results indicate the importance of determining the categorization and function of roads in places where pedestrian flows are pronounced, as well as the perception of pedestrian safety near bus stops and parking spaces. Practical Applications: The results of this study can help traffic safety engineers and managers plan infrastructure measures for future pedestrian safety planning and management in order to reduce pedestrian casualties and increase their physical activity.