The Influence of the Trend, Basin Interactions, and Ocean Dynamics on Tropical Ocean Prediction

Abstract

AbstractThe trend, connections between tropical ocean basins and dynamical processes on sea surface temperature (SST) and sea surface height (SSH) forecast skill are investigated using a linear inverse model (LIM) framework. The warming trend has a strong influence on 6‐month SST forecast skill in the Indian Ocean, Western Pacific, and north tropical Atlantic, but little effect on El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) prediction. ENSO strongly impacts the SST forecast skill in all three ocean basins including most of the Indian Ocean and the north tropical Atlantic. Without interactions with the Indian Ocean, the 6‐month SST forecast skill is substantially reduced in the western tropical Pacific and SSH skill decreases in the central Pacific. Atlantic and Indian Ocean interactions with the Pacific enhance ENSO forecast skill at 6–12 months leads. The Indian Ocean influences SSH in the eastern Atlantic, while the tropical Atlantic affects SST forecasts in portions of the Indian Ocean.