Abstract
Several talent development programs in youth soccer have implemented motor diagnostics measuring performance factors. However, the predictive value of such tests for adult success is a controversial topic in talent research. This prospective cohort study evaluated the long-term predictive value of 1) motor tests and 2) players’ speed abilities (SA) and technical skills (TS) in early adolescence. The sample consisted of 14,178 U12 players from the German talent development program. Five tests (sprint, agility, dribbling, ball control, shooting) were conducted and players’ height, weight as well as relative age were assessed at nationwide diagnostics between 2004 and 2006. In the 2014/15 season, the players were then categorized as professional (n = 89), semi-professional (n = 913), or non-professional players (n = 13,176), indicating their adult performance level (APL). The motor tests’ prognostic relevance was determined using ANOVAs. Players’ future success was predicted by a logistic regression threshold model. This structural equation model comprised a measurement model with the motor tests and two correlated latent factors, SA and TS, with simultaneous consideration for the manifest covariates height, weight and relative age. Each motor predictor and anthropometric characteristic discriminated significantly between the APL (p < .001; η2 ≤ .02). The threshold model significantly predicted the APL (R2 = 24.8%), and in early adolescence the factor TS (p < .001) seems to have a stronger effect on adult performance than SA (p < .05). Both approaches (ANOVA, SEM) verified the diagnostics’ predictive validity over a long-term period (≈ 9 years). However, because of the limited effect sizes, the motor tests’ prognostic relevance remains ambiguous. A challenge for future research lies in the integration of different (e.g., person-oriented or multilevel) multivariate approaches that expand beyond the “traditional” topic of single tests’ predictive validity and toward more theoretically founded issues.
Highlights
There are well reasoned warnings in talent research against premature selection in talent identification and development (TID) programs (e.g., [1]), these selections are necessary if a sport association wants to focus its resources on the most talented youth athletes [2]
The same holds true for players who became semi-professional in comparison to non-professional players
The motor diagnostics’ prognostic relevance was verified by significant mean differences concerning the three adult performance level (APL) (F(10; 24,174) = 31.48, p < .001, η2 = .01) and this APL effect remained significant in the MANCOVA under consideration of the maturation-related covariates (F(10; 23,902) = 33.40, p < .001, η2 = .01)
Summary
There are well reasoned warnings in talent research against premature selection in talent identification and development (TID) programs (e.g., [1]), these selections are necessary if a sport association wants to focus its resources on the most talented youth athletes [2]. In popular sports, the selection process is a huge challenge, because there are so many talented athletes who compete for only a few positions in adult elite sport. Talent prognosis seems to be exceedingly difficult in sports with a complex, multidimensional performance profile [3]. Several TID programs in soccer e.g., the Elite Player Performance Plan in England [4] have implemented motor performance diagnostics supporting training and / or selection processes. Empirical investigation of motor predictors’ prognostic relevance for long-term success is a key topic in talent research [6, 7]
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