Abstract

West Nile virus (WNv) was introduced into North America in 1999, and by 2002 was identified in most regions of Ontario, Canada. Surveillance of WNv included testing of corvids found dead and reported by citizens across Ontario, which at the time was a novel citizen science application for disease surveillance. While this surveillance program was successful for timely identification of WNv as it emerged and spread across the province, it is important to consider the influence of non-disease factors on surveillance data collected by the public. The objective of this study was to examine associations between rates of citizen phone reports of dead corvids and sociodemographic factors within the geographic areas where the reports were obtained. The data were grouped by forward sortation area (FSA), a geographical area based upon postal codes, which was linked with census data. Associations between the weekly rate of citizen reports and FSA-level sociodemographic factors were measured using multilevel negative binomial models. There were 12,295 phone call reports of dead corvids made by citizens in 83.3% of Ontario FSAs. Factors associated with the weekly rate of phone reports included the proportion of high-rise housing, the proportion of households with children, the proportion of seniors in the population, the proportion of citizens with no knowledge of either official language and the latitude of the FSA. There were higher rates of citizen phone reports in FSAs with <80% high-rise housing and greater proportions of households with children. A positive and negative association in the rate of calls with the proportion of seniors and latitude of the FSA, respectively, were moderated by the proportion of the population with knowledge of official language(s). Understanding the sociodemographic characteristics associated with citizen reporting rates of sentinels for disease surveillance can be used to inform advanced cluster detection methods such as applying the spatial scan test with normal distribution on residuals from a regression model to reduce confounding. In citizen-derived data collected for disease surveillance, this type of approach can be helpful to improve the interpretation of cluster detection results beyond what is expected.

Highlights

  • It is important to consider these potential confounding effects when advanced statistical methods such as cluster detection techniques are utilized for identification of higher-than-expected morbidity or mortality

  • The majority of bird species were classified as American Crows (95.64%), with the remainder classified as BSyntax Error (60557): Bad LZW stream - unexpected code lue Jays (0.99%), Common Ravens

  • There were 122 phone reports with either missing dates or location information, which were excluded from further analyses

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Summary

Introduction

It is important to consider these potential confounding effects when advanced statistical methods such as cluster detection techniques are utilized for identification of higher-than-expected morbidity or mortality. The objective of this study was to examine the citizen phone reports of dead corvids in relation to area-level sociodemographic factors, in order to understand inherent biases in these particular data and to inform future research and communication strategies regarding the use of sentinel indicators for disease surveillance when participation by the public is requested. Strains of WNv appeared to cause higher morbidity and mortality in humans and horses in parts of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East [3]. These outbreaks were associated with more severe neurologic disease and higher mortality in humans, horses and birds. 2001, the disease was first identified in Ontario in a found dead corvid, and subsequently, cases in corvids and humans were found across the province (and most of North America) through the summer and fall of 2002 [7]

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