The Influence of Sentiments of Economic Agents on Pedestrians and Vehicle Crossings along the US–Mexico Border

René Cabral,Francisco García-Flores,Eduardo Saucedo

doi:10.3390/app12052512

Abstract

This study aimed to investigate the impact of people’s sentiments toward border crossings on personal vehicle and pedestrian crossings along the US–Mexico border. This study focused on regional factors and employed data derived from Google Trends as a proxy for people’s sentiments. Monthly data from the first quarter of 2004 to February 2020 were used. Different regression models were used to address stationarity. After controlling for economic conditions and external events, the primary findings are as follows: first, pedestrian and personal vehicle crossings are sensitive to exchange rate fluctuations. Second, the economic cycle has a slightly higher impact on pedestrians than personal vehicle crossings. Third, an increase in the hostile environment toward immigration in the U.S. may negatively impact pedestrian crossings, especially in Texas. Moreover, a rolling regression was used to examine the impact of people’s sentiments on crossings over time.

Highlights

From 1996 to 2019, pedestrian crossings increased by 44.2%, from 34.10 million to 49.18 million, but the growth rate of personal vehicle crossings was 17.1% Data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics
A rolling regression analysis was performed to examine the relationship between the sentiment variables and border crossings over time
It is observed that controlling for economic factors, such as the real exchange rate and economic activity, border crossings are affected by the sentiments of people toward new immigration policies

Summary

Introduction

The NAFTA agreement ( known as USMCA) has boosted economic integration between the United States (the U.S.) and Mexico over the last two and a half decades. 1994 to 2019, trade in goods between the 2 countries increased 5-fold, from $100.34 billion to. $614.54 billion Data from www.census.gov (accessed on 26 September 2020). Trade growth in Mexico was even more dramatic, with exports of goods increasing from $49.49 billion in 1994 to $357.97 billion in 2019. Labastida-Tovar [1] documented a significant growth in export levels in both countries’ border cities. More impoverished border cities, such as Port Arthur, California, and Reynosa, Mexico, have gained more from trade, with higher growth rates than San Diego or Monterrey. From 1996 to 2019, pedestrian crossings increased by 44.2%, from 34.10 million to 49.18 million, but the growth rate of personal vehicle crossings was 17.1% Data from Bureau of Transportation Statistics

Objectives

Results

Discussion

Conclusion