The influence of sea-surface temperatures on Eastern North Pacific tropical cyclone activity

Abstract

The influence of sea-surface temperatures on six measures of tropical cyclone activity in the Eastern North Pacific is examined using historical sea-surface temperature and tropical cyclone data spanning from 1971 to 2002. Relationships are evaluated using methods of trend analysis, extreme year analysis, and bivariate correlation. Results suggest that in order to understand the climatological factors affecting topical cyclone activity in the Eastern North Pacific, the main development region must be divided into two sub-regions of development to the east and west of 112°W longitude. Increasing trends of sea-surface temperature are not accompanied by increasing trends in tropical cyclone activity. In the western development region, sea-surface temperatures are significantly correlated with all measures of tropical cyclone activity during extreme years. In this region, sea-surface temperatures are on average below the threshold for tropical cyclone development. In the Eastern development region, the only significant correlation with sea-surface temperatures is for the more intense measures of hurricane activity. In this region, sea-surface temperatures are on average above the threshold for cyclone formation. This leads to the hypothesis that the proximity to the cyclone formation temperature threshold in the WDR enhances the sensitivity of tropical cyclone activity to SSTs. This may have application to other tropical cyclone basins such as the North Atlantic.