The influence of radiotherapy treatment time on the control of laryngeal cancer: a direct analysis of data from two British Institute of Radiology trials to calculate the lag period and the time factor

Abstract

This study analyses node-negative laryngeal tumour control data from two clinical trials conducted by the British Institute of Radiology in order to determine the time factors and the presence or absence of a lag period before the time factor takes effect. A direct maximum likelihood approach is used to fit a double-logarithmic model including a repopulation term which commences after an initial lag period, Tk. The analysis yields a time factor of 0.8 Gy per day (95% confidence interval 0.5-1.1 Gy per day) as the extra dose required to counteract the reduction in tumour control probability (TCP) with extension of the treatment time. The latter reduction amounted to between 5 and 12% TCP per week, depending on the stage and time period. With this dataset, where few patients were treated for short times, no statistically significant lag phase can be demonstrated. However, the best estimate of Tk is 21 days (95% confidence interval 0-27 days), which is consistent with estimates from other studies on other datasets. If a lag phase exists, this study would indicate that the duration is less than 27 days. Other studies have used retrospective data and are subject to a number of potential biases. The present study, using data from multicentre prospective randomized clinical trials, is free from some of these sources of bias. The fact that very similar estimates of the radiobiological parameters are obtained lends credence to these other studies and suggests that the potential biases may be small in practice.