The Influence of Potential Infection on the Relationship between Temperature and Confirmed Cases of COVID-19 in China

Weiran Lin,Qiuqin He

doi:10.3390/su13158504

Abstract

Considering the impact of the number of potential new coronavirus infections in each city, this paper explores the relationship between temperature and cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in mainland China through the non-parametric method. In this paper, the floating population of each city in Wuhan is taken as a proxy variable for the number of potential new coronavirus infections. Firstly, to use the non-parametric method correctly, the symmetric Gauss kernel and asymmetric Gamma kernel are applied to estimate the density of cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in China. The result confirms that the Gamma kernel provides a more reasonable density estimation of bounded data than the Gauss kernel. Then, through the non-parametric method based on the Gamma kernel estimation, this paper finds a positive relationship between Wuhan’s mobile population and cumulative confirmed cases, while the relationship between temperature and cumulative confirmed cases is inconclusive in China when the impact of the number of potential new coronavirus infections in each city is considered. Compared with the weather, the potentially infected population plays a more critical role in spreading the virus. Therefore, the role of prevention and control measures is more important than weather factors. Even in summer, we should also pay attention to the prevention and control of the epidemic.

Highlights

IntroductionA typical pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus, called COVID-19, broke out in
Based on the non-parametric method, this paper explores the relationship between temperature and cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19 in mainland China
The results show that Wuhan’s mobile population is positively related to cumulative confirmed cases of COVID-19, while the relationship between temperature and the number of cumulative confirmed cases is inconclusive in mainland China when the impact of the number of potential new coronavirus infections in each city is considered

Summary

Introduction

A typical pneumonia caused by a new coronavirus, called COVID-19, broke out in. What is more depressing is that the new coronavirus may accompany humans for a long time [4]. The epidemic situation of COVID-19 caused severe pressure on the long-term accumulation of global innovation, hindering the innovation ability of enterprises, which is an important factor for the sustainable development of the country [5,6,7]. In order to better formulate the relevant epidemic prevention measures and recover the economic development of various countries as soon as possible, subjects such as the rate of an epidemic, transition methods, prevention methods, remaining time of the virus in the environment, and the effects of environmental factors on virus infection rate must be paid more attention to [8,9,10]

Objectives

Results

Conclusion