The Influence of Meteorological Factors on Wheat and Rice Yields in China

Abstract

In this study, our primary objective was to explore the effects of meteorological change on crop yield by analyzing conditions for midseason rice (Oryza sativa L.) and winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in China. We conducted a detailed exploration of the relationship between yield and meteorological factors at different growing stages; specifically, the crop yield of >2000 Chinese administrative counties from 1980 to 2012 and the day‐degree data from 2481 weather stations were carefully analyzed. We first investigated the tendencies and the fluctuation ratios per unit yield to identify the differences in Chinese crops according to cultivar and region and the causes of these differences. We then determined the exact relationships between yield and meteorological factors at different growth stages via data association analysis. We also found time and spatial distribution patterns for crop yield and then established the meteorological factors influencing each index through quantitative analysis. We found that the yields of rice and wheat have witnessed steady growth in China in recent decades, and the stability of rice production has outweighed that of wheat. China's rice yield in the northeastern region at the emergence stage is greatly influenced by temperature, whereas it is during the grain‐filling stage that China's wheat yield is significantly affected by temperature. By obtaining real‐time agricultural meteorological information, crop production can be effectively and timely predicted, and more refined and scientific field management can be achieved according to the degree of importance of meteorological factors during different periods to increase crop production.