Abstract
The paper deals with the problem of the pyrogenic situation in the forest fund of the Boksitogorsk district of the Leningrad region, which has been in existence for half a century. Long-term statistical data on the occurrence of fires and weather factors in the study area were used. The analysis of the relationship between meteorological factors and fire occurrence and spread was carried out. The methods of descriptive statistics, and correlation and cluster analyses were used. The relationship between the amount of precipitation and average temperatures for the period from April to September was obtained, and the probability of fire occurrence in the study region assessed. There was a trend towards an increase in the average positive temperatures for the period April–September against the background of a stable regime of atmospheric precipitation. The cause of forest fires is an anthropogenic factor, since no dry thunderstorms have been recorded. The continuing trend toward an increase in average temperature over the spring-summer period will not pose a threat, if the atmospheric precipitation regime persists over the same period, and appropriate fire-fighting measures are applied in the study area.
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