The Influence of Mapped Hazards on Risk Beliefs: A Proximity‐Based Modeling Approach

Abstract

Interview findings suggest perceived proximity to mapped hazards influences risk beliefs when people view environmental hazard maps. For dot maps, four attributes of mapped hazards influenced beliefs: hazard value, proximity, prevalence, and dot patterns. In order to quantify the collective influence of these attributes for viewers' perceived or actual map locations, we present a model to estimate proximity-based hazard or risk (PBH) and share study results that indicate how modeled PBH and map attributes influenced risk beliefs. The randomized survey study among 447 university students assessed risk beliefs for 24 dot maps that systematically varied by the four attributes. Maps depicted water test results for a fictitious hazardous substance in private residential wells and included a designated "you live here" location. Of the nine variables that assessed risk beliefs, the numerical susceptibility variable was most consistently and strongly related to map attributes and PBH. Hazard value, location in or out of a clustered dot pattern, and distance had the largest effects on susceptibility. Sometimes, hazard value interacted with other attributes, for example, distance had stronger effects on susceptibility for larger than smaller hazard values. For all combined maps, PBH explained about the same amount of variance in susceptibility as did attributes. Modeled PBH may have utility for studying the influence of proximity to mapped hazards on risk beliefs, protective behavior, and other dependent variables. Further work is needed to examine these influences for more realistic maps and representative study samples.