Abstract
An irrigated agricultural landscape experiencing groundwater overdraft generates economic returns and a suite of ecosystem services (in particular, groundwater supply, greenhouse gases reduction, and surface water quality). Alternative land cover choices indicate tradeoffs among the value of ecosystem services created and the economic returns. These tradeoffs are explored using efficiency frontiers that determine the least value in ecosystem services that must be given up to generate additional economic returns. Agricultural producers may switch to irrigation with surface water using on-farm reservoirs and tail water recovery systems in response to groundwater overdraft, and this has consequences for the bundle of ecosystem service values and economic returns achievable from the landscape. Planning that accounts for both ecosystem service value and economic returns can achieve more value for society, as does the adoption of reservoirs though lowering the costs of irrigation, increasing groundwater levels, and reducing fuel combustion and associated GHG emissions from groundwater pumping. Sensitivity analyses of per unit value of ecosystem services, crop prices, and the groundwater and water purification model parameters indicate tradeoff among ecosystems service values, such as the use of a high-end social cost of carbon ultimately lowers groundwater supply and water purification value by more than 15%.
Highlights
In response to groundwater overdraft, increases in groundwater pumping costs, and the degradation of surface water quality from agricultural runoff, irrigation may shift from well pumping toward surface water from on-farm reservoirs with tail-water recovery systems that capture agricultural runoff
1253 1000 819 567 -511 -1522 -2206 result in a lower ecosystem service value than is required for that position on the frontier. This means that large crop increases into high value rice cannot occur halfway along the frontier because the fall in greenhouse gas (GHG) value would cause the total ecosystem service value to fall below the required value
Going around the efficiency frontier from point D to point H shifts most land into irrigated production, and this increases economic returns by 51% while ecosystem services decline by 386%
Summary
In response to groundwater overdraft, increases in groundwater pumping costs, and the degradation of surface water quality from agricultural runoff, irrigation may shift from well pumping toward surface water from on-farm reservoirs with tail-water recovery systems that capture agricultural runoff. The economic and institutional aspects of conjunctive water management are well studied [1, 2], but the influence of reservoirs on groundwater supply, surface water purification, and greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction has received less attention. The choice of reservoirs can raise the aquifer volume, which in turn affects the crops grown, and PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0168681. Consequences of Groundwater Depletion on Ecosystem Services and Economic Returns The choice of reservoirs can raise the aquifer volume, which in turn affects the crops grown, and PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0168681 December 29, 2016
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