The influence of gouge formation on seismicity and fault slip behavior. 

Abstract

Through the progression of seismic activity, natural fault zones undergo a complex evolution characterized by the accumulation of damage and the formation of gouge within the fault core across multiple scales. Even though this is believed to be among the key factors affecting the evolution of fault seismicity over time, a deep understanding of the mechanisms at play is still missing. In this study, we explore the role of gouge production in the self-organization process of loaded rough faults, focusing on the evolving dynamics of earthquake nucleation, recurrence and moment partitioning during the seismic cycle. We model the stress and sliding dependence of gouge evolution by linearly coupling Archard's wear law with rate-and-state friction through the critical slip distance ( Dc ). Including this new formulation in 2D quasi-dynamic, elastic simulations of rough faults, we can reproduce the effects of spatially and temporally heterogeneous gouge evolution. Following the build-up of gouge over many cycles, we observe a progressive transition from cascade-driven to creep-dominated nucleation processes, marked by an increase of precursory slow slip and foreshock activity. A clear shift in the moment partitioning from faster to slower slip rates becomes evident as heterogeneity grows larger, followed by a reduction of the total cumulative moment released. Finally, the recurrence interval is observed to grow initially, then drop abruptly and become more unpredictable as the amplitude of Dc continues to rise. Incorporating a new formulation of gouge production in earthquake cycles simulations, this work sheds light on the role of gouge accumulation in the maturation process of natural faults, offering critical insights for seismic risk assessment and mitigation.