The influence of gerrymandering on abortion policy in the United States

Abstract

Background: When the U.S. Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization (2022) overruled a five-decade old precedent and gave states the unfettered power to regulate or ban abortion, it did so while proclaiming the decision would return power over the issue to the people, and that women specifically were not without political influence to shape policies. Nowhere amid such language about the power of the people does the Court decision acknowledge the capacity for biased legislative district maps (i.e., gerrymandering) to influence resulting policies. Methods: Here I consider the state-level relationship between gerrymandering and abortion policy using logistic regression that controls for several variables including statewide public opinion, religion, and the number of women legislators. Data on abortion rules are derived from the Guttmacher Institute’s database as of January 1, 2023. Data on gerrymandering scores for each legislative map are derived from the Campaign Legal Center. Results: I find that states with a pro-Republican gerrymander were considerably more likely to impose a pre-viability abortion ban in 2023. Across the 50 states, the logistic regression results suggest an increase in the odds of an abortion ban by more than 40 times as a result of a pro-Republican legislative map gerrymander. Notably, a pre-viability abortion ban is in place in nine of the 10 states where public opinion favors abortion rights but where the legislative map is biased toward Republicans. Conclusions: The influence of mapmakers over the resulting policy clouds the Court’s sanguine assertions of the public’s influence and women’s political agency over this issue.