The influence of financial market development on investment activities in a developing country

Abstract

Financial markets are considered developed if there is improvement in the size, activity, efficiency and stability of the financial system. The study looked at how financial development based on debt, stock, money and foreign markets affect investment. The Johansen cointegration and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) were used to estimate the short and long run relationship and test for the speed of adjustment. Granger causality test informed about direction of causality, variance decompositions and impulse response indicated effects of shocks. The Johansen cointegration test showed that the variables have a long run relationship. VECM showed that the speed of adjustment is about 13%, which means that variables will converge to equilibrium relatively quickly. The impulse response function indicated that financial market development indicators have short-run effects on investment in the first quarters after the initial shocks. Variance decomposition also indicated that specifically government bonds had greater effect in predicting future investments. The policy implications of these findings are for government to place greater priority on government bonds as its effect on investment is greater than other financial development proxies. Policies should focus on allowing greater risk diversification and improving the independence of the financial sector from government interference.