The Influence of Country Risks on the International Agricultural Trade Patterns Based on Network Analysis and Panel Data Method

Qingru Sun,Shuaiwei Shi,Liwei Cui,Zenglei Xi,Meiyi Hou

doi:10.3390/agriculture12030361

Abstract

The pattern of international agricultural trade is undergoing profound changes. The influence of country risks on the international agricultural trade pattern is prominent. In this paper, we comprehensively analyze the international agricultural trade patterns and explore the influence of country risks on them. Specifically, we first construct an international agricultural trade network (IATN) based on complex network theory. Second, we analyze each country’s diversity of import sources and the position of countries in the IATN using the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI) and network indicators, such as in-degree, out-degree, weighted in-degree, weighted out-degree, and betweenness centrality. Third, this paper explores the influence of different types of country risks, including economic risk and political risk, on international agricultural trade patterns using the panel regression method. The results show that countries played different roles and occupied different positions in the international agricultural trade pattern; notably, the United States occupied a core position, while Japan and Mexico had insufficient diversity in import sources. Moreover, based on the panel regression method, we find that political risks have a positive impact on the agricultural trade pattern, while an unstable economic environment could inhibit the agricultural trade pattern in various countries. This study could provide references for countries to implement agricultural trade policies regarding country risks to ensure stable agricultural trade relations and national food security.

Highlights

The complicated international trade relations have been widely studied from a network perspective [1,2]
This paper aimed to explore the impact of country risks on the international agricultural trade pattern
We constructed an international agricultural trade network (IATN) model to reveal the patterns in international agricultural trade and used a panel regression model to identify the influence of political and economic risks

Summary

Introduction

The complicated international trade relations have been widely studied from a network perspective [1,2]. With the globalization of economic development, an increasing number of countries have joined the international agricultural market, forming a complex trading network [3,4]. The United States exports a large number of agricultural products and has many trading partners due to its large amount of arable land area and technological advantages, while some countries must rely on imports to meet their domestic needs. In this complex agricultural trading network, the factors that determine agricultural trade patterns have attracted the attention of many scholars [5–8]. A better understanding of agricultural trade patterns and the influence of country risks on them can help countries implement agricultural trade policies to ensure stable agricultural trade relations and national food security

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Conclusion