The influence of copper trade relation structure on copper price: From the perspective of industrial chain

Abstract

Trade is an important approach to coordinating the global allocation of copper. Under the changeable international situation, the volatile relation between trading nations plays an increasingly important role in copper price fluctuation. In this paper, the influence of trade relation structure on copper commodity prices is discussed by combining the complex network and econometric model. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the upstream and downstream commodities’ market liquidity will cause the upstream commodity price to significantly change within four years. The midstream commodity price is mainly influenced by its market liquidity and chain-like trade relations’ scale. This influence peaks around the third year. The downstream commodity price is mainly influenced by its own trade relation structure. And the influence was greatest in the second year. This article provides a reference for traders to guard against possible fluctuations in commodity prices caused by changes in relation between trading countries.